Strategic Foresight 2050 Toolkit

The Strategic Foresight 2050 Toolkit provides information on programming a strategic foresight initiative as well as guidance for leveraging the research products, workshop materials and approaches used at FEMA. 

Product Types

The Toolkit is divided into two product types that align with FEMA’s phased approach to Strategic Foresight.

Scanning

FEMA engaged in environmental scanning to identify, analyze, and catalog the drivers and signals of change shaping the future of emergency management. FEMA used this Drivers & Signals Library to develop Current Trend Papers that explore the intersection of key issues.

  • Current Trend Papers
  • Drivers & Signals Library

Workshopping

FEMA developed a Futures Workshop Series where stakeholders explored and discussed four different Future Scenarios set in the year 2050 using a range of interactive activities and Inject Cards. These scenarios do not represent a FEMA or U.S. government forecast of the future.

  • Guidebook
  • Future Scenarios
  • Inject cards

Information and scenarios on this page do not represent a FEMA or U.S. government forecast of the future.

Toolkit Components

A Transforming Field

The role of emergency managers is changing quickly as our responsibilities stretch far beyond responding to natural disasters. A Transforming Field explores implications of this change, including novel coordination and planning demands, increased staff support needs and the opportunities and challenges of technological advancement.  

An Evolving Public

An Evolving Public explores immediate and longer term impacts of demographic shifts across the United States. As the population becomes more diverse, older, more educated and more concentrated, the emergency management enterprise will navigate new opportunities and challenges.

Drivers and Signals Library

The Drivers and Signals Library highlights the forces shaping our world and their significance within the emergency management community. Structured in five distinct categories (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Geopolitical), this library systematically describes current trends to inform proactive planning.  

Fragmented Futures

The Fragmented Futures scenario describes a United States struggling with rising inequality, limited economic growth, high poverty and frequent climate-related disasters. Severely limited budgets and resource constraints fuel crime and civil unrest and divide communities. However, amidst these challenges, technology provides opportunities to wealthier segments of the population and innovation-driven businesses. 

Going for Growth

Going for Growth describes growing climate consequences as global emissions surpass Paris Agreement targets. Heatwaves, coastal flooding and hurricanes regularly displace communities, but the U.S. is still economically prosperous – thriving on technological innovation powered by fossil fuels and steady immigration. The U.S. has also continued to expand its global influence through economic success and free trade agreements, navigating conflicts over federal policies that highlight the evolving complexities of the American landscape. 

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